We received 6.45 inches of precipitation (that includes snowfall as liquid equivalent), which is a whopping 3.53 inches above normal - more than double the . The start of this period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. Most Mediterranean-like climates ( like South-West Australia, Cape Canaveral , Chili mid-west, East Mediterranean countries and South California ) were pre-forecast to have drier than normal Early winter but showed wetter Mid-winters and hopefully the rest of the winter will be wetter . The problem with this approach, however, is that our record of reliable observations is just too short to slice and dice the data in this way. One exception is southwestern Canada and higher elevations in the western/northwestern United States. View the weather with our interactive map. Published March 3, 2023 11:09 a.m. PST. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 10:32. You can see that jet stream redirection in the image below. I also agree that relying on ENSO indices for a seasonal forecast is a recipe for a busted forecast, particularly IF the forecast is not interpreted correctly. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored in the Southwestern United States, across the Southeastern states, and along the Atlantic coast. (Image credit: Getty images), Video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation and drought. The Farmers Almanac winter snow forecast is predicting an early start to winter, with a cold and stormy December. We know that all La Nias feature below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, by definition, but the details vary from event to event. This can be as low as 200ft or so above sea level on some days, the Met Office explains. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 16:54. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:04, Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:30, In reply to It's hard to say without by emily.becker. December-February: January-March: In line with December's blocking high pressure, the lack of weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic mean the month is expected to be much drier than average for western areas, especially in Scotland. Categories Long range / seasonal forecast. Northerly winds (i.e. Here is the forecast for the coming days. The image below shows the circulation pattern of a cold phase and its ocean-atmosphere connection. 2021 Associated Newspapers Limited. The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. The image below shows the average pressure pattern during the La Nina winters in the past 40 years. As its normally colder higher up in the atmosphere, when the air rises up a hill, it becomes colder, and condenses to form cloud and precipitation. Karen S. Haller. From February to April, above-normal temperatures are projected to continue along the East Coast, in the Southeast and into the Southwest, with the greatest chance of warmer weather along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastlines as well as parts of the Southwest. Overall, the UKMO is much more dynamic than the ECMWF and leaves more possibilities open regarding pattern development. It was also noticeable that most mediterranean-like climates in both ( North and South) hemispheres had shown early signals of drought in December-January Projections from last year , the coupling of a negative ENSO and negative PDO with Negative IOD brings limited number of Lanina years with such combined wet-dry phases during a particular ENSO ( cold or warm ) . We did have a high-amplitude MJO phase 3, which often leads to wet conditions on the West Coast. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. The seasonal outlook looks at temperature and precipitation trends between December 2021 through February 2022. Since the ocean is the same in all the simulations, the models will produce a range of outcomes that account for the role of atmospheric chaos for each individual La Nia. In the January forecast, there is no real improvement. However, I would not rule out that there could be a minor influence, especially with NEP22A, since those anomalies are in a region that did seem to provide a minor enhancement to Southwest precipitation in the simulations I analyzed. The figure above shows the high-minus-low precipitation average differences between these two groups. I will just add that I only focused on one impact and one particular region (Southwest U.S. precipitation), but it would be interesting to do a more comprehensive analysis of possible distinctions between La Nina flavors in the climate model simulations. Tonight should be the chilliest for a while. Rishi Sunak set to unveil new laws to tackle small boat crossings in Channel next week, Government WhatsApp decision-making threatens 'accountability', warns Information Commissioner, Snow and ice warning as coldest day of year so far to hit UK as temperatures plummet, continues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October, 'How bad are the pics? The December snow depth forecast shows widespread negative anomalies. The UK is set to be hotter than Greece over the weekend as the countrycontinues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October. The brown bars indicate events with below-average precipitation, and the green bars indicate events with above-average precipitation. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country." In the Great Lakes region,. Chris Bilbrey, a forecaster with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, digs a pit with Rebecca Hodgetts, southern mountains lead . 16 day. What does the latest ocean analysis data show, and what influence did it play on temperature and snowfall patterns in the past? Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. A .gov This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. The January snowfall forecast shows more potential in northern and western Europe. AccuWeather's range for the Twin Cities is 75-124% of normal, which means it could be below average or above average. More snowfall can be seen in parts of the Midwest and the northeastern United States. It calls for snowfall to be above normal toward the East Coast as well. The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. These variations include the magnitude and location of the strongest tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaliesa particular flavor of La Nia. A cold morning with a fair amount of cloud around, though perhaps some brighter spells, where there could be early morning frost. I realize that this winter has been more eventful in other parts of the country, notably in the western U.S., where torrential rains and heavy mountain snows occurred in December and January. Again, there is an expectation that January and February will see more of an influence from the Atlantic, with the ECMWF maps indicating near-average precipitation levels for most of the UK. AccuWeather meteorologists break down which areas will. This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2022 through January 2023 predicts persistent widespread drought across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. This connection has been hypothesized, but the evidence is mixed. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 12:57. 16 min read. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. How unusual were these Southwestern wet conditions in the first two-thirds of a La Nia winter? This is a reflection of the pressure changes in the latest model forecast. This model has been quite consistent with low snow accumulation since the early September runs. The highest snowfall potential is usually in regions with colder temperatures and more precipitation. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. The season will be relatively normal this year. As far as ENSO goes the one difference this winter seems to be the east tropical Pacific was not as cold as the prior years when the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 at times were from -2 to -.2.5 while the western tropical pacific was near neutral. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. Pastelok said that the warmer ocean temperatures could help to fuel a potentially big system that could affect the East Coast in the latter half of winter. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. Thanks for your comment, Craig. Because the observed record is too short to tease out the relationships we seek with sufficient precision, we rely on climate models to sharpen the signal relative to the noise of random weather variability. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, which often is the rain-snow line for major storms, the Farmers Almanac suggests more snow than rain. From February to April, below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Southwest and coastal portions of the Southeast, but areas including Texas may see a respite from less-than-normal snowfall and rainfall. It was developed by the United Kingdom Met Office, which is where the initials UKMO come from. Technically, this value also will reflect, in part, the increases in greenhouse gas increases in the simulation, but this effect on precipitation is relatively small. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures. Understanding what teleconnection patterns we can and cannot predict on these seasonal time scales remains a big research topic. The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a typical La Nina snowfall pattern. Winter Forecast 2022-2023, Meteorologist Chris Tomer 5 months ago Winter Camping in Snowfall - Forester Tree Hug Tarp Setup - Spit Roast - Bushcraft Bowsaw Swedwoods 240K views 3 weeks ago. The southern United States is forecast to have a drier-than-normal winter season. More precipitation is typical over the northwestern United States, the Great Lakes, and parts of the northeast. La Nia could enter rare third straight year. During this period, the prevailing winds continue to blow from the northwest or northeast. The format of this forecast is simple. by Craig T, Regardless of the cause, the above normal rainfall for Tucson this winter is unusual during a LaNina event. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. The effects of air rising up hills and mountains must also be considered. The figure above shows the sea surface temperature differences between the high- and low-precipitation groups in the SPEAR simulations. Is that a small effect, or does La Nia strength need to be controlled for? Feeling cold. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. Often with the cold easterly winds, and the air travelling over so much dry land, there is very little moisture in it to form the snow and we end up with some crisp winter sunshine instead. Lets turn the Farmers Almanac into something real and useful. Also, CPC data reveals an East Pacific MJO episode in January. The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through . Share. There appears to be a warming trend in our Octobers over the recent years, with many of them bringing milder than average spells.. Winter Forecast for Southwest Michigan for 2022/2023 Impactful Winter Weather On the Way A storm system will move into Lower Michigan for Friday, bringing primarily snow but some light freezing rain could mix in across the far south. Events were the coldest temps are in the central pacific and warmer temps in the east. Thanks, Tom. Submitted by Stan Rose on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 21:45. As you can never trust a single forecast model, we always tend to use the UKMO long-range forecasting system along the ECMWF. A spokesperson for the Met Office told i: With this low pressure out to the west, with the way the jet stream is positioned at the moment, its helping to spin these weather systems in towards the UK. air travelling from north to the south) bring the air straight from the Arctic and over a cold sea to reach the UK. The February snowfall forecast shows snowfall potential remaining over the northern parts of the United States. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). NOAA says the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Enjoy summer while you can, folks because Ontario's 2022 winter weather forecast is shaping up to be a real drag. Another meteorological winter is drawing to a close, though it feels like some of us in the East are still waiting for winter to arrive (not a single inch of snow here in central New Jersey so far!). You can see a strong high-pressure system in the North Pacific and a low-pressure area over Canada and the northern United States. More snowfall is still forecast in the upper Midwest, with some hints of more snowfall around the central Great Lakes. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. Although such climate models are rather sophisticated and reliable, they are imperfect. With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. Year-Long Guide to Great Living The 2023 Farmers' Almanac offers 16 months of weather prediction starting with September 2022 going through December 2023. The Ohio winter 2022-2023 predictions are predicated on this being the second year for the current La Nina weather pattern. January 2022 in Iowa was 4.8 degrees colder than average.