The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Join. Dive in and Share your insights! Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. So, the usual. And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. . They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. This is the final episode. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Transcripts by Erin Wade. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. In the main event, former light Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. You can't imitate a worldview. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? It's a busy week! gold rush supreme second chance winners. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. This is the second episode. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. A message from Martine. They consider how much. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. Rev. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . No place like 'Nam. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. r/fivethirtyeight. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. Nate Silver's. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." 04:58 PM. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary.